The Mobile Web Tablet

Distimo is a dutch analytics company focusing on mobile app stores. In their Mobile World Congress presentation they present the latest trends and numbers from the app store world.

One of the things they highlight is that cross platform development is that cross platform development is on the rise with developers targeting more than one platform. Should be good news for companies and tools such as PhoneGap and MoSync. The latter recently announced plans for a cross platform app store.

The race is on.

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Wow. Sony Ericsson sold 25.7 million devices Q3, Motorola sold 25.4 million. LG sold 23 million.

That would make Sony Ericsson number three after Samsung and Nokia. A goal I know they have been trying to reach for a long time. Congratulations!

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It’s long, but it’s worth it. Tomi Ahonen of the blog Communities Dominates Brands lists no less than 20 shifts that have occurred in the telecom industry over the last 10 years. The shifts are:

Mobile phones vs fixed landline phones
Change from voice to SMS
Move from enterprise to consumer centric
Smartphone customers
Postpaid vs prepaid
Subsidised handsets vs unsubsidised
Operator (carrier) designed phones
The expansion of the mobile phone’s capabilities from one to eight
Networks and their coverage
Want to see the antenna of the phone
Multiple subscriptions and phones
Replacement cycles
The mobile phone as an aspirational thing
Phone and fashion
CDMA vs GSM
The SIM card and unlocked phones
The Receiving Party Pays model shifting to Calling Party Pays
Clamshell form factor vs candybar
Emergence of childrens phones
Youth need to text blindly

It’s a long post, full of insights, including this one:

Ten years ago the primary service on cellphones was voice; and many American top telecoms experts in wireless still today will repeat this faulty mantra “but in the end, we must remember that the cellphone is primarily a voice communciation device”. TOTALLY WRONG. And don’t buy into the iPhone hoopla (so, eh, its a.. media device?). No! Don’t buy into the RIM propaganda (oh, I get it, you mean wireless email?). No, as all mobile telecoms execs in all leading markets – from Scandinavia to Italy and Spain to Ireland and the UK to Israel to Singapore to South Korea – know: the only addictive service on cellphones is SMS text messaging. The killer app – the only killer app – is SMS.

(Emphasis added.)

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Sales for first quarter 2008:

• Motorola: 27.4 million devices.
• LG: 24.4 million devices.
• Sony Ericsson: 22.3 million devices

In a few months time the top five chart can be completely rewritten. I wonder if Motorola will even be in it!

What about Apple? Well, their target is 10 million iPhones sold by the end of the year. That’s about the same number that any of the three manufacturers above sell in one month. Impressive for a “new guy” but hardly a dent in the overall mobile phone industry.

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Spent the afternoon at the Daytona Session here in Stockholm. A mini-conference focusing on the future of the internet. One of the speakers was Stefan Waldeck from Yahoo! Sweden. He talked about mobile (which by the way was a common theme amongst the speakers – seems that’s where the future of the web is) and mentioned that the Yahoo! Go Mobile client will soon be preinstalled in available for (?) more than 200 devices from all the five major device manufacturers.

Sounds like news to me. At least I’ve missed it.

I wonder what the deal is between Yahoo! and the manufacturers. A not too wild guess would be revenue sharing of ads shown in the application. Consequence: your next phone might be subsidized not only by the operator but also by Yahoo!. In other words, mobile advertising is coming and it will take the shape of value added applications in your phone.

Another example of this: Yahoo! is also the search engine that pays for you to use Opera Mini (you didn’t think it was really free, did you?). Together with Yahoo! Go Mobile in 200 devices, Yahoo! can take a significant chunk out of that mobile revenue that Google wants with their as-of-yet-non-existing GPhone.

Microsoft has been trying to break in to the telecom market for years with Windows Mobile but they will most likely join the advertising war. They’re just a little late for the game.

Microsoft, Google Phone, Yahoo! Go Mobile… looks like the future of the web really is in mobile.

Pictures from the event here.

Updated: Lotta Holmstr??m at Citizen Watch also wrote about the Yahoo! presentation:

Yahoo! Go is a small java applet which lets the user access email, flickr, search and more. It will be in 200 cellphone models at the end of the year.

What does “in” mean? Preinstalled or available for?

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A few disruptive innovations are getting ready to hit the market, opening up for small device manufacturers to fill the hole between the <3 inch display devices (mobile phones) and the >10 inch display device (laptops). The hole reserved for web tablets.

One of them is flash memory replacing the hard drive. Another one is new form factor motherboards, small enough to put in a box of matches. A third one is WiMAX, promising broadband speed (well, sort of) wireless internet access (problem for WiMAX is, it’s been promising it for so long that good old 3G UMTS is catching up). Yet another is the Linux OS.

What do you get when putting all of them together?

Something like this.

The device is called MUnit and runs a 1GHz VIA CPU which is x86 compatible. You should be able to run Windows Vista on this one, if you want to. What the web tablet market needs is not Vista, though, but a Linux version that’s stable and has a developer ecosystem fertile enough to produce killer applications. The problem (some would call it a strength) with Linux is its many flavors.

Many flavors is great when eating ice cream but not so great when you want to build a commercial software application that must run on as many devices as possible for as little cost as possible. Linux is not there yet and maybe it never will get there. Why? Because Linux is a fertile environment for operating systems – not for applications.

That’s why I think Linux and Java is such a good combination – and I’m not the only one.

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I can’t help but smile when I read about TeliaSoneras “ace up their sleeve” in the fight for becoming the operator to sell the iPhone in Sweden. Imagine that: operators fighting over who should sell a phone!

Touch screen, nice GUI and a slick design: those are not the true innovations in the iPhone. The fact that it’s the manufacturer picking what operator will be allowed to sell their products. Now, that’s new.

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Wow, what a success. At least the first weekend, the iPhone went for a knockout and succeeded. Up to 700’000 phones is nothing short of amazing especially considering the price. The iPhone has already become and iconic product that has changed the market. Every other smartphone will be compared to the iPhone.

Iconic mobile phones are otherwise few and far between. For a consumer market the size of the mobile phone market, the following is quite interesting:

[...] there are now only two mobile phones in American history that consumers ask for by product name: The Motorola Razr and the Apple iPhone.

I would have added the Blackberry, but OK. This is nothing short of a failure for a market that size. Truth is, most mobile phones are clones of each other. Even the last couple of years explosion of features (cameras, mp3 players, web browsers, games etc.) hasn’t produced a single phone that really sticks out with personality (I’m probably a bit biased when I say the Sony Ericsson T610 is a candidate).

Innovation has been in features, not in usability, design or marketing. Apple has changed that. None of the features in the iPhone are completely new, but the packaging is.

Time for the established players to start afresh and stop the cloning.

If I was the CEO of one of the major mobile vendors, I would have set aside a team of the most experienced engineers and the best designers and basically give them free hands to do magic. Preferably, they would be in a separate building from the other company. Their mission: to go to the soul of the company, the roots, and make the phone everyone in the company wants to make if they weren’t prevented by legacy requirements and old code. Start from a blank slate and work upwards.

Of course, such an endeavor would hit the bottom line pretty hard, which is why most CEOs don’t do it. A classic innovators dilemma which an outsider can take advantage of in exactly the way Apple has done.

Nokia is trying to do something along those lines with their open source and web tablet team headed by Ari Jaaksi. While the Nokia web tablets have been far from as successful as the iPhone (don’t know the sales figures for the web tablets, but I’m guessing they’re far below 500’000) I think in the long term it will pay off. (For Nokia, this is quite a courageous move. Their customers are the operators and I’m pretty sure no operator asked for a linux based wifi web tablet!)

This is also how Motorola came up with the RAZR, by the way:

They kept the project top-secret, even from their colleagues. They used materials and techniques Motorola had never tried before. After contentious internal battles, they threw out accepted models of what a mobile telephone should look and feel like. In short, the team that created the RAZR broke the mold, and in the process rejuvenated the company.

Seems like companies are only capable of pulling this through during hard times. Motorola was in a pretty bad shape when RAZR was born.

Exciting things are happening in the world of mobile and the established players better watch out – especially the ones with wind in the sails. The iPhone is not the last wanting to go for knockout and it’s so darn difficult to be innovative when times are good.

Unless you’re Apple, it seems.

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