Sat 27 Dec 2008
Predictions for the 2009 Mobile Market
Posted by Erik Starck under Mobile 2.0
[2] Comments
It’s that time of the year, when you reflect on what has been and try to look forward to what will be.
More has happened to the mobile market during 2008 than what is appearant at first sight. A lot of changes to the market is taking place under the surface where the shock waves of iPhone and Android are disrupting the entire value chain of operators, devices, operating systems and applications.
These changes will start to erupt next year.
Add to that the financial crisis and the recession and 2009 will become a year that will bring massive change to the entire industry. We will have a completely different playing field in 2010 compared to 2008.
The last couple of years we have seen major innovations and huge change in the mobile industry. But we know from history that it is during hard times that true change happens. Companies on the verge of destruction are more likely to innovate. New players with completely different business models can enter the field. On top of that we are approaching a technological tipping point where mobile internet access and mobile platforms are becoming commodities. The ecosystem is becoming fertile.
I believe more will happen in the coming 1-2 years than in the last 5 put together. Heck, make that the last 10!
Exciting times.
So, a few predictions for the next year:
- It will be the year of Android. The most exciting device of the year will run Android – and it will not come from any of the major players but from a brand like Asus, Creative, Doro, Canon, Nike or Armani.
- Mobile application vendors will grow stronger at the expense of device manufacturers. Probably not to the extent that it really matters (yet) but the tide has clearly shifted. We are approaching the moment where people pick a device based on what applications it support. It won’t happen in 2009 but soon.
- iPhone will lose some of its momentum. The 3.0 will be released but it will be evolutionary, not revolutionary. Still, it’s so far ahead of everything else that it doesn’t matter: it’s still the king of the hill.
- Windows Mobile will continue to grow stronger at a steady (some would say “too steady”) pace.
- Killer app of the year: Spotify Mobile on Symbian. An Android version follows soon after. People will complain to Apple for not allowing an iPhone version. (Spotify is a music streaming application for computers.)
- Mobile internet flat rate prices but with an upper volume limit will be more common. There will be a lot of experimenting with pricing of mobile broadband subscriptions.
- The economy will be bad but not as bad as most people seem to think today.
All in all a very interesting year.
Updated: some more predictions for 2009 from industry experts collected by Chetan Sharma.
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